Bernstein analysts reduced their price targets on Coinbase, Robinhood, and blockchain lending firm Figure Technology Solutions on Monday, pointing to geopolitical pressures and subdued sentiment across crypto markets. Despite the reductions, the firm held its “Outperform” ratings on all three companies. The move reflects broader turbulence that has pushed the stocks roughly 60% below their 2025 peaks, according to the note authored by analyst Gautam Chhugani.
Bernstein lowered its price target on Coinbase (COIN) to $330 from $440, on Robinhood (HOOD) to $130 from $160, and on Figure (FIGR) to $67 from $72. The analysts wrote that these businesses provide exposure to trillion-dollar markets with years of growth still ahead, citing prediction markets, stablecoins, tokenized real-world assets, and crypto derivatives as key opportunities. They added that a bottom in crypto stocks is expected to coincide with weak first-quarter earnings.
Coinbase, currently trading near $160, carries the most direct exposure to crypto prices among the three firms. Spot trading volumes are running approximately 30% below fourth-quarter 2025 levels, prompting Bernstein to cut its 2026 earnings-per-share estimate by 44% to $5.97. Nevertheless, the firm projects a 26% revenue compound annual growth rate through 2027, supported in part by the exchange’s stablecoin revenue stream.
The San Francisco-based exchange receives roughly half of Circle‘s USDC income and has been expanding its derivatives business following its acquisition of Deribit. These diversified revenue sources are seen as a buffer against continued weakness in spot crypto trading. Analysts view the stablecoin and derivatives segments as central to Coinbase’s longer-term growth trajectory.
Robinhood and Figure are considered better positioned to recover given their comparatively limited dependence on crypto price movements. Analysts noted that crypto accounts for only around 20% of Robinhood’s total revenues, while Figure operates as a pure blockchain tokenization business. The firm described both companies as showing stronger resilience relative to Coinbase in the current environment.
Prediction markets are expected to become a meaningful revenue driver for Robinhood in 2026, with Bernstein projecting approximately $586 million in contributions — a 286% increase year-over-year. That growth is anticipated to be supported by Robinhood’s distribution agreement with Kalshi and its proprietary exchange Rothera, a joint venture with Susquehanna. The analysts see this segment as a significant new avenue for the company beyond its traditional brokerage business.
Figure crossed $1 billion in monthly loan origination volume in March, according to Bernstein, and is broadening its platform beyond its core home equity line of credit offering. The company is expanding into auto loans, small business lending, and tokenized equities. Figure went public in September at a valuation of $5.3 billion. At the time of the note, Robinhood shares were trading near $64, down roughly 3% on the day, while Figure shares were down less than 1% at under $31.
Originally reported by Decrypt.
