New research from Google‘s Quantum AI team significantly reduces previous estimates of the computing resources required to break the cryptographic protections securing Bitcoin and Ethereum wallets. The findings suggest that quantum machines capable of compromising these systems could emerge well ahead of earlier projections, which had pointed to the mid-2030s as the earliest realistic threat window. The paper has prompted renewed urgency across the cryptocurrency industry regarding post-quantum security measures.
According to the research, a sufficiently advanced quantum computer could crack a Bitcoin private key in approximately nine minutes once the corresponding public key is exposed. This scenario is not purely theoretical, as public keys become visible during certain transaction types, creating a window of vulnerability. The implications for Bitcoin holders are considerable, given the scale of potentially affected funds.
The study estimates that roughly one-third of all Bitcoin in circulation — approximately 6.9 million coins — faces heightened exposure under this threat model. That risk is compounded by protocol upgrades such as Taproot, which can increase the circumstances under which public keys are revealed on-chain. The combination of improved quantum capabilities and expanded key visibility narrows the security margin for a significant portion of the Bitcoin supply.
On the Ethereum side, developers have already initiated an extensive migration effort aimed at transitioning the network toward post-quantum cryptographic standards. The proactive stance taken by the Ethereum development community contrasts with the pace of similar discussions within Bitcoin circles. Observers note that the decentralized and conservative nature of Bitcoin’s governance makes rapid protocol changes more difficult to coordinate.
Prominent figures in the cryptocurrency space are now calling on the Bitcoin community to accelerate work on quantum-resistant upgrades before the threat becomes operational. A particular concern raised is that state-level actors — governments or intelligence agencies with substantial resources — could develop and deploy quantum computing capabilities in secret, leaving the public with little warning. This scenario would give malicious actors the ability to drain vulnerable wallets before any defensive measures could be implemented.
The Google research represents a meaningful shift in how the industry should assess its timeline for addressing quantum risks. Security experts and developers across both networks face pressure to move from planning stages to concrete implementation of cryptographic protections that can withstand quantum attacks. The findings serve as a reminder that the window for proactive defense may be shorter than the broader community had previously assumed.
Originally reported by CoinDesk.
