Traders on Myriad, a prediction market owned by DASTAN, the parent company of Decrypt, placed a 90% probability on Friday that U.S. military personnel will enter Iranian territory before the end of the month. That figure represents a significant jump from the 60% odds recorded just one day earlier. The shift in sentiment followed reports that an American fighter jet had been shot down over Iran. The development has intensified debate over the scope and direction of the ongoing conflict.
According to CNN, citing unnamed sources, the aircraft appeared to be an F-15, and the U.S. subsequently launched search and rescue operations in the area. One pilot was reported to have been rescued, while the fate of a second crew member remained uncertain at the time of reporting. The incident marks a notable development in a conflict that began 35 days ago between the U.S.-Israel alliance and Iran. Any deployment of ground troops would constitute a major escalation in the Middle East.
The ongoing conflict has already placed considerable strain on the global economy, contributing to what analysts describe as the worst oil supply disruption in decades. U.S. officials have confirmed that 15 American soldiers have been killed since fighting began. Senator Roger Marshall became the latest lawmaker to voice concern about the potential human cost of sending troops into Iran. Marshall, whose son is currently serving in the military, stated he hopes the war ends quickly and with minimal American casualties.
U.S. President Donald Trump claimed earlier in the week that Operation Epic Fury is approaching its conclusion, saying that core strategic objectives are nearing completion. Trump has also asserted that regime change in Iran has already taken place. However, Myriad traders appear skeptical, assigning a 75% probability on Friday that Iran’s current ruling regime will remain in power through October, approximately 180 days away.
According to The Washington Post, citing regional and Western officials, a hard-line government has consolidated power in Iran following the assassination of the country’s senior leaders. That group is seen as offering little prospect for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict. The report suggests that hopes for a negotiated end to hostilities remain limited in the near term.
In a post on Truth Social on Friday, Trump suggested that the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of the world’s oil supply passes, could be reopened with additional time. He also raised the possibility of physically seizing oil from the region and generating significant revenue from it. The comments came as energy markets continued to reflect the pressure of the ongoing disruption.
Oil prices have climbed sharply amid the turmoil. WTI crude oil futures rose 0.47% on Thursday to $112.07 per barrel, nearing their highest level in four years, according to Trading Economics. Myriad traders on Friday placed an 83% chance that prices would climb to $120 before eventually falling to $55. Brent crude, the international benchmark, has also surged, with its spot price reaching $141 per barrel, the highest level since 2008, according to CNBC, which cited data from S&P Global.
Originally reported by Decrypt.
