Anthony Scaramucci, managing partner of the SkyBridge investment firm, says the ongoing Bitcoin bear market can be attributed to two key factors: the cryptocurrency’s four-year market cycle and long-term holders offloading their positions at the psychological $100,000 price level. He notes that while institutional investors and inflows from Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have softened volatility, these forces have not entirely eliminated BTC’s traditional cyclical patterns. In his view, the cycle has been dampened but not erased by the changing market landscape.
Scaramucci expects Bitcoin to experience choppy price action for much of the year, with a meaningful recovery not anticipated until the fourth quarter of 2026, when he believes a new bull market cycle will begin. He and many other market participants had previously forecast that BTC would climb to $150,000 in 2025, buoyed by US President Donald Trump‘s pro-crypto policy stance and a more accommodating posture from US financial regulators. Those expectations, however, were upended by a sharp market downturn.
A significant market crash pulled Bitcoin down from an all-time high of approximately $126,000 to a low of around $60,000, effectively dismantling the broadly held bullish consensus for 2025. Scaramucci pointed to this reversal as consistent with a broader pattern in which markets tend to move contrary to prevailing investor sentiment. He cited Bitcoin’s behavior in early 2023, following the collapse of the FTX exchange in November 2022, as a comparable example of a bull market emerging from a period of widespread disinterest.
“It was at a period of great disinterest and great apathy that the bull market started again,” Scaramucci said, characterizing the current downturn as a routine correction consistent with prior bear markets. He described the present environment as a “garden variety” decline rather than a structural breakdown. His comments come as debate continues across the crypto industry about whether Bitcoin’s four-year cycle remains a reliable framework following BTC’s negative close to 2025.
Analysts, executives, and traders are divided on whether the four-year cycle theory still holds or whether evolving market dynamics have permanently changed how Bitcoin’s price behaves. Adding to near-term uncertainty, the price of BTC fell below $69,000 on Saturday as an ongoing conflict involving Iran entered its third week, unsettling risk assets broadly. The decline reflected wider pressure across financial markets as geopolitical tensions weighed on investor appetite.
Equity markets also came under pressure, with the S&P 500 index falling approximately 1.3% on Friday. The index closed below its 200-day moving average the previous day, a closely watched technical indicator used to gauge the overall direction of equity markets, marking the first such occurrence in ten months. The development added to concerns about a broader risk-off environment affecting both traditional and digital asset markets.
Some analysts have raised the possibility of a 50% decline in Bitcoin’s price in 2026 if the cryptocurrency continues to show a strong positive correlation with the S&P 500. The scenario underscores the degree to which Bitcoin’s price dynamics may now be intertwined with broader macroeconomic and market conditions. Whether that correlation persists or fades remains a central question for investors navigating the current environment.
Originally reported by CoinTelegraph.
