Fidelity Digital Assets research analyst Zack Wainwright says that Bitcoin‘s decline this market cycle has been notably smaller than in previous cycles. Historically, Bitcoin has fallen between 80% and 90% from its all-time highs, but the current cycle has seen a drawdown of only around 50%. Wainwright made the observation on Tuesday, noting a broader pattern of diminishing swings from cycle to cycle.
Wainwright described the trend as one of reducing extremes in both directions. Each successive cycle has produced less dramatic gains to the upside, and the current cycle is also showing less severe losses to the downside. He characterized this as a consistent pattern visible when examining Bitcoin’s price performance relative to its previous all-time high.
According to data from TradingView, Bitcoin reached its current cycle low of just over $60,000 on Feb. 6, representing a 52% decline from its all-time high of approximately $126,000 set on Oct. 6. As of the most recent figures, Bitcoin sits about 46% below that peak reached six months ago. By comparison, the previous cycle saw a far steeper drop of 77%, falling from a 2021 high of $69,000 to a bear market low just under $16,000 in November 2022.
Nick Ruck, director of LVRG Research, told Cointelegraph on Wednesday that Fidelity’s findings point to a market that is growing more mature. He said the shallower drawdown indicates reduced volatility and stronger institutional confidence in Bitcoin. The assessment suggests that as the asset class develops, its price swings may continue to moderate over time.
Separately, Alphractal founder Joao Wedson observed on Tuesday that Bitcoin’s price peak this cycle occurred 534 days after the most recent halving, a shorter interval than in the prior cycle. He described this as part of a broader decaying pattern across cycles, where key milestones are occurring closer together. Based on this pattern, Wedson suggested the historical bottom may arrive between 912 and 922 days after the halving.
That timeline, according to Wedson, points to a potential cycle bottom in late September or early October 2026. Bitcoin currently remains below both its 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages, which are widely used as long-term trend indicators. The asset is hovering near the 200-week exponential moving average at around $68,000, a level that has historically acted as significant support during market downturns.
Originally reported by CoinTelegraph.
