Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded their biggest single-day inflows since late February on Monday, pulling in $471.3 million as investors positioned themselves ahead of a deadline set by President Trump regarding negotiations with Iran. BlackRock‘s IBIT led the way with $181.9 million, followed by Fidelity‘s FBTC at $147.3 million and ARKB at $118.8 million, according to data from SoSoValue. Every fund in the group recorded net inflows or held flat, with none posting outflows.
At the time of the inflows, Bitcoin was trading at approximately $69,200, reflecting a 1% decline over the prior 24 hours but a 3.7% gain on the week, according to CoinGecko. The activity signals a measured response from institutional players rather than speculative positioning tied directly to geopolitical outcomes. Wenny Cai, Founder and CEO of decentralized derivatives exchange SynFutures, described the behavior as resembling structured accumulation more than a binary bet on the situation in the Middle East.
Cai noted that institutional investors appear to be re-entering the market through deliberate allocation strategies rather than reacting to the prospect of a near-term resolution to the conflict. The inflows coincide with a period of heightened diplomatic activity between the United States and Iran. Negotiations have centered on a U.S. proposal, with Iran responding with its own set of conditions.
Iran delivered a ten-point response to the U.S. fifteen-point peace plan, calling for a permanent end to hostilities, the removal of all sanctions, and a halt to Israeli strikes in Lebanon. In exchange, Iran offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz but proposed a $2 million fee per vessel transiting the waterway, with proceeds to be shared with Oman. However, negotiators were reported to be pessimistic that Iran would comply with Trump’s demand to reopen the strait before his Tuesday-night deadline, according to The Wall Street Journal.
A strategic adviser to Iran’s parliament speaker adopted a confrontational stance, stating that Trump had roughly 20 hours to either yield to Iran or face consequences for his allies, according to a post by The Kobeissi Letter. Oil prices have climbed to $115.50 per barrel in response to the ongoing uncertainty, representing a 110% increase from lows recorded in December 2025. The status of the Strait of Hormuz remains a central variable in the broader market outlook.
On prediction market Myriad, users placed a 68% probability on average ship transits through the strait rising above 15 before May, up from 43% on April 3. The same platform showed an 84% chance that crude oil’s next move would push prices to $120 per barrel. These figures reflect cautious but growing optimism among market participants tracking the diplomatic situation.
For Bitcoin, analysts have previously suggested that a successful ceasefire could open the door to a potential retest of $80,000. Cai noted that if tensions ease, Bitcoin could be among the first assets to reprice higher, though she cautioned that a sustained bull run would depend more on global liquidity conditions than on geopolitical developments alone. Bitcoin’s resilience since the conflict began on February 29, combined with consistent ETF demand and macro hedging activity, could keep prices supported near current levels, with $70,000 serving more as a test zone than a definitive floor, according to Cai.
Originally reported by Decrypt.
