The growing divergence between gold and Bitcoin in 2026 comes down to who is buying each asset, according to Stephen Coltman, head of macro at crypto exchange-traded product provider 21Shares. Speaking to Cointelegraph, Coltman explained that gold’s multi-year rally has been driven primarily by central bank purchases, whereas Bitcoin remains more widely held by individual investors than by financial institutions. This distinction, he argues, is central to understanding why the two assets have moved in different directions.
Coltman noted that Bitcoin carries particular utility for individuals in crisis situations where local banking infrastructure breaks down and access to the traditional financial system becomes impossible. He pointed to a recent conflict during which both the Dubai and Abu Dhabi exchanges were shut down following missile and drone strikes, describing the episode as a stark reminder of how valuable around-the-clock access to assets can be during wartime or other emergencies. For those cut off from conventional finance, Bitcoin can serve as an alternative lifeline in ways that gold cannot easily replicate.
Despite their differences, Coltman told Cointelegraph that the inverse correlation between Bitcoin and gold means investors stand to benefit from holding both assets simultaneously. Each offers distinct properties that the other lacks, and together they can provide a more balanced hedge against macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty. He framed the two not as competitors but as complementary instruments within a broader portfolio strategy.
Gold reached an all-time high of nearly $5,600 per ounce in January 2026, propelled by years of macroeconomic turbulence and geopolitical shocks. Heightened volatility subsequently pulled the precious metal back to approximately $4,497 per ounce, reigniting debate among analysts about its long-term role as a store of value. The pullback has also prompted fresh comparisons between gold and Bitcoin regarding which asset is better positioned for the years ahead.
Macroeconomist Lyn Alden believes Bitcoin is likely to outperform gold over the next three years, describing the relationship between the two as a pendulum that swings back and forth. She suggested that because gold has already risen so sharply, the diminishing returns seen in previous cycles could be erased in the cycle to come, potentially giving Bitcoin room to catch up. Her outlook reflects a broader view that the two assets tend to take turns leading performance over extended periods.
Not all observers share that optimism about Bitcoin’s prospects relative to gold. Former hedge fund manager Ray Dalio argues that Bitcoin will never displace gold as a store-of-value asset, citing its continued tendency to trade like a risk-on instrument with correlations to technology stocks. Gold, by contrast, is deeply entrenched as a reserve asset within the global banking system, giving it a structural role that Bitcoin has yet to achieve. The debate between the two camps underscores the broader uncertainty surrounding how each asset will perform as macroeconomic conditions continue to evolve.
Originally reported by CoinTelegraph.
