Approximately $15 billion worth of Bitcoin options contracts are set to expire on Friday on derivatives exchange Deribit, representing close to 40% of the platform’s $36.5 billion in total BTC open interest. When combined with Ethereum contracts, the total value of expiring options reaches $17 billion, according to the exchange’s chief commercial officer, Jean-David Pequignot. Deribit was acquired by Coinbase in a $2.9 billion transaction in 2025 but continues to operate under its original name.
Pequignot highlighted that geopolitical developments are adding a layer of complexity to Friday’s expiry. He noted that Bitcoin’s recent climb back toward $71,000 was driven by President Donald Trump‘s decision to delay strikes on Iranian power plants by five days. That diplomatic pause expires in close alignment with Friday’s options settlement, which he said is amplifying a localized spike in volatility within the market’s term structure.
Despite those external pressures, Pequignot indicated that traders appear to have been gradually reducing their risk exposure ahead of the expiry date. The exchange has observed what he described as an implied volatility compression across both BTC and ETH contracts. He interpreted this as a signal that the market is anticipating a measured settlement rather than a sudden surge in volatility.
Total Bitcoin open interest across all major exchanges reached $112 billion on Wednesday afternoon, having risen 8% in a single day, according to derivatives analytics platform Coinglass. The platform compiles data from 24 exchanges, including CME, Binance, OKX, and ByBit. Nexo analyst Iliya Kalchev told Decrypt he also expects a relatively orderly settlement when the contracts clear.
Kalchev noted that the more consequential question may be what unfolds after the options overhang is removed. Once that pressure clears, price action tends to find its own direction, and he said some additional market activity heading into the weekend would not be unexpected. Large options expiries have previously set the stage for significant moves that carry into the following week.
A comparable situation occurred in September 2025, when 30-day Bitcoin volatility had fallen to 0.88% ahead of a major expiry, according to BitBo. Within a week, that figure climbed to 1.14% and continued rising, eventually peaking above 2% by month’s end following a $19 billion liquidation event that triggered a sharp BTC decline. As of Wednesday afternoon, the 30-day Bitcoin volatility metric stood at 2.23%, indicating that conditions remain elevated compared to that earlier episode.
Kalchev pointed to Bitcoin’s ability to hold ground near $70,000 as a constructive sign, given the current backdrop of geopolitical tensions, softness in equity markets, and instability in energy markets. He said this resilience reflects solid spot demand and steadiness among longer-term holders. For traders looking for confirmation of further upside, he recommended monitoring ETF inflows and on-chain accumulation as indicators that new capital is entering the market rather than existing participants simply repositioning.
As of Wednesday afternoon, Bitcoin was trading at $70,912.18, up 2.3% over the prior 24 hours, according to crypto price aggregator CoinGecko. Market participants will be watching closely to see whether Friday’s expiry passes without disruption and what price behavior follows once the contracts settle.
Originally reported by Decrypt.
