Bitcoin has recorded a modest decline over the past week, but its losses have been considerably smaller than those seen across broader financial markets since the Iran conflict began on February 28. The world’s largest cryptocurrency was trading around $68,000 on Sunday, down roughly 2% over the prior 24 hours and approximately 6% over the previous seven days, according to CoinGecko data. The conflict has now entered its fourth week, pushing crude oil prices higher and contributing to a wider pullback in risk assets.
The geopolitical situation deteriorated further over the weekend after U.S. President Donald Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum to Iran, demanding the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz or threatening strikes on Iranian power plants. Tehran responded by threatening to completely shut the critical oil shipping route and target U.S.-linked energy infrastructure across the region. The escalation has added to uncertainty across global markets and kept oil prices elevated.
U.S. equities have now fallen for four consecutive weeks, with the S&P 500 breaking below its 200-day moving average for the first time since March of last year — a closely watched technical level among institutional investors. Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are down approximately 4% to 5% this month, according to Google Finance data. Energy has been the only major sector to post gains during this period, as oil prices climb back toward $100 a barrel.
By contrast, Bitcoin’s monthly loss stands at just 0.2%, a relative outperformance that some market participants attribute to earlier rounds of deleveraging in the crypto market and continued institutional involvement. John O’Loghlen, managing director for APAC at Coinbase, said Bitcoin has materially outperformed traditional assets on a risk-adjusted basis since the start of the conflict. He noted that as oil becomes an active channel for global inflation, the firm is observing rising institutional inflows into crypto assets and U.S. Bitcoin exchange-traded funds.
O’Loghlen added that there are early signs the crypto market may be past peak pessimism, though he cautioned that stronger participation would be needed to sustain a more durable rally. Other analysts share a similarly measured outlook, pointing to consolidation rather than heavy selling pressure as the defining characteristic of the current market environment. Nischal Shetty, founder of WazirX, described the crypto market as being in a steady consolidation phase with clear signs of institutional strength and accumulation.
Shetty noted that Bitcoin has been holding support near the lower end of its recent trading range while facing resistance near recent highs, suggesting buyers remain active despite ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty. Supporting this view, a mid-March report from VanEck‘s ChainCheck found that long-term holder selling has slowed, with transfer volume declining across older coins. Analysts interpret this as a sign that experienced investors are reducing distribution pressure on the market.
Looking ahead, analysts say Bitcoin’s next significant move will likely be shaped by macroeconomic data due in the coming week, including flash purchasing managers’ index readings from major economies. Further developments in oil prices are also expected to play a key role, as energy costs increasingly influence expectations for inflation and interest rates globally. The interplay between geopolitical risk and institutional crypto demand will remain a central focus for market participants in the near term.
Originally reported by Decrypt.
