President Donald Trump issued a stark warning on Tuesday via Truth Social, stating that a civilization would be destroyed unless Iran complied with U.S. demands by 8 p.m. ET. The ultimatum called on Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which has been blocking roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply since late February. Iran had previously rejected a ceasefire proposal from the United States. International bodies, including the International Committee of the Red Cross, have warned that carrying out such threats could constitute war crimes.
The standoff has sent oil prices sharply higher, with WTI crude trading above $115 per barrel and Brent crude above $110—a rise of more than 70% over the past 30 days. Spot Brent prices reached a new all-time high of $144.46 per barrel. Equity futures moved in the opposite direction, with S&P 500 futures falling 0.4%, Nasdaq 100 futures dropping 0.6%, and Dow futures sinking 142 points ahead of the opening bell. The escalating rhetoric has placed financial markets broadly on edge.
Bitcoin declined approximately 2% on the day to $68,557, while Ethereum fell 2.7% as traders positioned for potential further instability. The prevailing logic among market participants appears to be that a military strike on civilian infrastructure would prompt a flight to safety—and Bitcoin has not consistently functioned as a safe-haven asset during periods of war-related panic. The broader crypto market reflected a cautious, risk-off sentiment in line with other asset classes.
On Myriad, a prediction market developed by Dastan, traders currently assign only a 24.1% probability that the Iranian government falls before October. A separate market on the platform shows 57% of traders expect Bitcoin’s next major move to be a decline to $55,000, compared to 43% odds favoring a rally to $84,000. Additionally, 66% of traders on Myriad believe crypto will not recover this spring, with that market closing on May 31.
Bitcoin’s technical picture adds to the bearish case. The coin closed the first quarter of 2026 down 22%, its worst quarterly performance since 2018, weighed down by geopolitical conflict, tariffs, and a hawkish Federal Reserve. Since reaching an all-time high of $126,000 last October, Bitcoin has lost more than 45% of its value. The daily chart shows three separate recovery attempts since that peak, each producing a lower high and each followed by a breakdown to a lower low. The coin is currently hovering above support near $65,000, and a close below that level would open a path toward $55,000.
Several technical indicators reinforce the downward outlook. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average is trading below the 200-day, a configuration known as a “death cross” that signals a sustained downtrend and tends to see rallies sold into. The Average Directional Index sits at 12.8, well below the threshold of 25 that would indicate a genuine trend forming, suggesting the market remains choppy and without clear direction. The Relative Strength Index stands at 47.9, a neutral reading that gives neither buyers nor sellers a clear advantage.
The Squeeze Momentum Indicator shows compressed energy building with a negative lean, which represents a bearish setup if momentum is released to the downside. The Ichimoku cloud overhead is deep red, acting as a ceiling rather than a floor, and a descending trendline connecting successive highs remains intact. For a bullish reversal to gain credibility, analysts say Bitcoin would need to break above $75,000 with conviction, the ADX would need to climb above 20, and the 50-day EMA would need to begin curling back toward the 200-day. None of those conditions are currently being met.
Some analysts, including Kim Arthur of Main Management, have described the current environment as the bottoming phase of a classic four-year crypto cycle. However, without confirmation from the technical indicators outlined above, market observers caution that any near-term bounce risks becoming yet another lower high within the existing pattern. The combination of geopolitical uncertainty, weak momentum signals, and bearish chart structure leaves the short-term outlook for Bitcoin tilted to the downside.
Originally reported by Decrypt.
